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Fearless Review

At the halfway point of the season, a look at how the predictions are doing and a fearless look at the playoffs.

The Dallas Mavericks recently played their 41st game of the season, thus reaching the half-way mark on the 2004-2005 season. I thought this would be a good opportunity to review my "fearless" pre-season predictions of the Western Conference race.

First, here is a quick chart of the team rankings based on winning percentage thus far along with my original predicted final rankings. (Chart is from January 27, 2005)

TEAM & RANK	WIN %	PREDICTION
1) San Antonio	.773	1
2) Phoenix	.773	7
3) Seattle	.707	14
4) Sacramento	.700	5
5) Dallas	.683	2
6) Houston	.558	6
7) Lakers	.550	8
8) Minnesota	.548	3
9) Memphis	.545	10
10) Clippers	.476	15
11) Denver	.405	4
12) Portland	.390	11
13) Utah	.349	9
14) Warriors	.286	13
15) Hornets	.171	12

General Overview
Obviously, I missed the boat on a couple of teams. Most notable, Phoenix and Seattle have thumbed their noses at my predictions and raced to the top of their respective divisions and now hover just behind stalwart San Antonio at the top of the whole conference.

Other notable discrepancies include the L.A. Clippers playing with a touch of pride, the Timberwolves playing without pride, Utah dragging along without their lone star, Andrei Kirilenko, and finally Denver playing like the Nuggets we've all known in loved in the years leading up to 'Melo.

Excuses
Okay, so I may have missed a few predictions. It's not like you ran to Vegas and used my predictions to bet your inheritance. At least, I hope not (for many reasons). So, what's my excuse? Well, lets look at a couple of cases.

Phoenix:
Okay, I totally underrated this team. Even after watching Nash light it up with the Mavs the last several years I never thought he could do so much more with the Suns than Stephan Marbury achieved. Part of this is due to the continued maturation of Amare & Joe Johnson (or at least that's the excuse I'm using) and the addition of Q. Richardson. But Nash is clearly the key to this team.

I predicted the Suns would lead the league in scoring and Nash would become a fan favorite throughout the league, but I didn't expect them to actually win *this* much. In the long run, I still don't really believe in this team. At least, I don't think they can win it all. But I can't discount them from having an impact in the playoffs. Their youth, lack of overall size and paper thin bench wont get them to the NBA finals but they could make a serious run at making it to the Western Conference finals.

Seattle:
How did such a terrible team from last year get so good without making any major additions? I don't know! And as for the first person who says "Danny Fortson" as the answer, I'm throwing rotten fruit at you. There is no way he explains this drastic change in team personality.

My best answer? Health and stability. Ray Allen was hurt for a large part of last season and they were beaten down by the time he returned. This year's group already knew each other well and they translated that into strong chemistry. Also, while I think the Sonics have overachieved thus far, this season's success merely proves that last season's team severely underachieved.

Minnesota:
I covered my tail in my predictions by noting that the T-Wolves had signs of some serious chemistry issues. Certainly, chemistry must be one of the top causes of this team's failures. How the same group of guys who went to the Western Conference Finals last year can be so average this year is one of the sad stories of this NBA season.

Suddenly, Cassell and Spree look old, slow and out of touch. This leaves KG back in his familiar role as a super star alone.


Utah:
Actually, I'm going to claim to have nailed this pick. I predicted them to be number nine, and then I assigned a "fallen star factor" of 4. Nine plus four is 13 sure enough sans-AK47 this team is ranked number 13.

New Orleans Hornets:
Same thing here. My original prediction was 12th, with a "fallen star factor" of 3. Baron Davis has missed much of the season and they stumbled to 15th. So, I'll just chalk that up to my own great predictions. Ha-ha. But in reality, this team has been a stinker like I never could have imagined. If I was in charge of a basketball arena and heard that the Hornets were coming to play in my gym I would stock up on some industrial strength deodorizers. Puuuuh-weee!


Wait Right There!
So, do I stand by my original predictions? Actually, for the most part, yes. I was wrong on Phoenix. But I think Seattle will come back down to earth a little bit. Obviously, they will finish way better than I originally predicted but I still don't expect to find them in the top 3 when the season is done.

Dallas should move up a notch or two, ending close to where I predicted (more on that in a later post), Sacramento might surpass my predictions a little but will likely end about where they are and thus close to my prediction.

Houston is a steady 6. Lakers will likely end at 8 still. The T-Wolves should creep up to seven. So here is my revised prediction chart with current standings, original predictions and revised predictions...

TEAM & RANK	WIN %	ORIGINAL PREDICTION	REVISED PREDICTION
1) San Antonio	.773	1	1
2) Phoenix	.773	7	2
3) Seattle	.707	14	5
4) Sacramento	.700	5	3
5) Dallas	.683	2	4
6) Houston	.558	6	6
7) Lakers	.550	8	8
8) Minnesota	.548	3	7
9) Memphis	.545	10	9
10) Clippers	.476	15	13
11) Denver	.405	4	10
12) Portland	.390	11	11
13) Utah	.349	9	12
14) Warriors	.286	13	14
15) Hornets	.171	12	15

Bonus - Playoff Predictions
Because of the new division format, Sacramento will be regulated to the fourth seed despite having the third best record.

Your first round match-ups look like:
Spurs vs. Lakers = Spurs in 5
Suns vs. Twolves = Suns in 6
Sonics vs. Rockets = Rockets in 6
Kings vs. Mavs = Mavs in 7

Second round:
Spurs vs. Mavs = Mavs in 6 (Mavs are the only team with a hope against SA)
Suns vs. Rockets = Suns in 5

Third Round:
Suns vs. Mavs = Mavs in 7 (What better story line could David Stern get than Nash vs. Dirk in the Western Conference Finals?!)

NBA Finals:
Mavs vs. Pistons = Mavs in 5

Alternate scenario: Spurs win each series in 4 games and everybody is so bored that they start talking about hockey again.

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