Fearless Predictions: The NBA 2004-2005
I just have to respond to Sports Illustrated’s NBA preview with one of my own. Why? Because they totally dropped the ball on ranking my two favorite teams: The Houston Rockets and the Dallas Mavericks.
Surprisingly, they got each one wrong for the exact opposite reason. I’ll also weigh in on what I think about the other teams too and provide some additional unique rankings values.
Legend
Rank : The most basic value. Where this team will end up within the conference. Regardless of playoff seeding rules based on division winners etc.
Variance : How far (plus or minus) from their predicted rank this team's actual ranking is likely to change over the course of the season. A low number means this team is very likely to be ranked exactly where predicted. A high number means they have great ability to over or under achieve.
Fallen Star Factor : In programming, there's a similar term we call 'Truck Factor.' That is, if the development team crossed the street this is the number of programmers that could be lost due to being hit by a truck before the project would fall apart. In this case, this is how far the team would fall if their top player was lost for the season.
Start To Finish Stability : The likelihood that the team's starting lineup (plus sixth man) at the end of the season will match the starting lineup (plus sixth man) at the end of the season. Values from 1 to 10 with 1 being major turnover and 10 being zero turnover.
Start To Start Stability : The likelihood that teams starting lineup (plus sixth man) at the start of NEXT season will match the starting lineup (plus sixth man) at the start of this season. Values from 1 to 10 with 1 being major turnover and 10 being zero turnover.
Sun & Moon : If the sun and moon align perfectly for this team, how far can they go? Similar to the Variance rating but this is an indication of their potential success in the playoffs, not just their regular season record.
Now, on with the rankings...
Western Conference:
Los Angeles Clippers
RANK : 15
VARIANCE : 3
Fallen Star Factor : 0 (Can't get any worse than last anyway.)
Start To Finish Stability : 3
Start To Start Stability : 2
Sun & Moon : Sill lottery bound.
Notes: A woeful team with little hope of improving.
Seattle SuperSonics
RANK : 14
VARIANCE : 4
Fallen Star Factor : 3 (Ray Allen could push them up a few notches with a good season, but without him they could be in for one of their worst seasons ever.)
Start To Finish Stability : 2 (This team needs some new faces.)
Start To Start Stability : 2
Sun & Moon : Lottery bound.
Notes: At the end of last season, everybody thought they were in for a big shakeup during the off season. That didn't happen and their hope for this season is pretty minimal.
Golden State Warriors
RANK : 13
VARIANCE : 2 (Down, not up)
Fallen Star Factor : 1 (What star?)
Start To Finish Stability : 2
Start To Start Stability : 1
Sun & Moon : Lottery bound.
Notes: This team will likely put a lot of hustle on the court, but that's about all they will have to show for their season.
New Orleans Hornets
RANK : 12
VARIANCE : 3
Fallen Star Factor : 5
Start To Finish Stability : 5
Start To Start Stability : 3
Sun & Moon : Lottery bound.
Notes: So, their stud point guard is upset and wants out of town. Possibly the most talented player, Mashburn, is going to miss the season due to an injury that cost him most of last season and he may never be the same again. They've got a pretty good center. And now they are dumped into possibly the most difficult division and conference in the league. This is not a good time for the boys from New Orleans.
Portland Trail Blazers
RANK : 11
VARIANCE : 5
Fallen Star Factor : 3 (Zach Randolph is a scoring and rebounding stud.)
Start To Finish Stability : 7 (Abdur-Rahim will likely be moved and Nick Van Excel is always a trade possibility depending upon his health and happiness.)
Start To Start Stability : 5 (Nick and Abdur-Rahim will not be back. Stoudamire could be gone too. Zach and Ratliff will be around and Miles should be too.)
Sun & Moon : First round playoff fodder.
Notes: I hate to rank these guys at 11 because they are a very good team. But the West is just that tough. If they get it all together they could surprise folks and claw their way as far as the sixth spot.
Memphis Grizzlies
RANK : 10
VARIANCE : 3
Fallen Star Factor : 1 (If I expected much out of this team, Gasol's FSF would be higher.)
Start To Finish Stability : 8 (Swift might get moved, but I don't think that is a great possibility. They are good at every position but not great. If they make a move it is because a super star suddenly becomes available to them.)
Start To Start Stability : 6 (If their season is a let down, as I suspect, the Hubie may be gone as coach and some of their mid-level guys could get moved.)
Sun & Moon : First round playoff fodder.
Utah Jazz
RANK : 9
VARIANCE : 3
Fallen Star Factor : 4
Start To Finish Stability : 9
Start To Start Stability : 7
Sun & Moon : First round playoff Fodder
Notes : Jerry Sloan is one of the best coaches out there. But I don't believe in the point guard, shooting guard or center. AK47 is a great guy, but he can't carry this team on his own. If Sloan melds this team into a winner, they might be able to slide into the sixth slot. But that will require a couple of really good teams to have very poor seasons.
Los Angeles Lakers
RANK : 8
VARIANCE : 3
Fallen Star Factor : 7 (No Kobe? LA gets two Clippers teams.)
Start To Finish Stability : 8 (Trades would be admitting their mistake in moving Shaq.)
Start To Start Stability : 6 (Umm, point guard and center. Help wanted.)
Sun & Moon : Second round playoff loss. Kobe scores 60+ points per game in the playoffs. Rest of the team scores 15 points total per game.
Notes: I really don't believe this team can do better than 5th. But I can not envision a season in which the Lakers don't make the playoffs.
Phoenix Suns
RANK : 7
VARIANCE : 2 (This team will be good and should make the playoffs.)
Fallen Star Factor : 5 (No Nash, No Prayer.)
Start To Finish Stability : 6 (Lots of small forwards and shooting guards. No center. Somebody might shell out for a chance at Barbosa if he has a breakout year and starts pushing for starter like minutes. What could they get for Barbosa and Marion?)
Start To Start Stability : 5 (See above.)
Sun & Moon : Second round playoff loss.
Notes: This team can't win it all without a center (a situation Nash is all too familiar with), but nobody is going to want to face them. They will surpass the Kings and Mavericks as the highest scoring team in the league and Steve Nash will be a fan favorite.
Houston Rockets
RANK : 6
VARIANCE : 4
Fallen Star Factor : 5 (If Ming goes down, this team has less going for it than last year's edition of the Orlando Magic and they were at least in the Eastern Conference. Things could get ugly.)
Start To Finish Stability : 8 (Van Gundy is unlikely to make a bunch of moves during the season unless a solid veteran becomes available. He's not likely to take a flyer on a player with issues. They will likely move one of their power forwards if they can find any takers; especially if they can get a player who can play multiple positions.)
Start To Start Stability : 4 (Point Guard, Small Forward, and Power Forward. That's three starting spots that will likely need new faces by the start of next season. They can not ask Jim Jackson to carry the load as a starter forever and the PG and PF spots are very weak overall.)
Sun & Moon : Western Conference Finals. This team has the potential to be really good and the key ingredients needed to destroy a lot of teams. If they get the needed chemistry and the role players come through in the clutch, this team can go a long ways.
Notes: While I believe it is possible for the Rockets to be one of the top dogs in the conference, I think Sports Illustrated is blinded by reality by ranking them so high. There is too little depth and too many questionable starters next to Yao and T-Mac. Yao has also played a ton of games during the summer on his national team and hasn't had a break since he was like 5 years old. That's a lot to ask of a guy lugging a seven foot six inch frame around. T-Mac? Wow, what a player. But, when he has actually won something, I'll give him more credit.
SI Comments: Sports Illustrated smokes some wacky weed and puts this team at number 4 on their list. If the Mavs can be discounted because of too many player changes then how in the world do you rank the Rockets, who traded away 3 of their top 4 players, that high? I grew up in Houston and will always be a Rockets fan. But I'm not buying into this edition just yet.
Sacramento Kings
RANK : 5
VARIANCE : 5
Fallen Star Factor : 2 (Webber is still the top dog on this team, but they didn't exactly roll over and die last year while he was out.)
Start To Finish Stability : 5 (Peja wants out. Webber costs too much. The depth isn't what it used to be. The owners have been less willing to throw cash around over the last few years. Is it time for a change?)
Start To Start Stability : 4 (See above.)
Sun & Moon : Western Conference Finals (This team is still ridiculously talented. I don't think they will win it all, but if they get everybody pulling in the same direction and avoid playoff time injuries then the Western Conference Finals is within their reach.)
Notes: For years, this has been known as the "next" dynasty in waiting. Having never fulfilled those expectations, they are now regarded as being past their prime and having missed their window of opportunity. I tend to agree with that statement, but that doesn't mean this team still doesn't have a pretty fierce bite. This is a team to be reckoned with, assuming it doesn't implode.
Denver Nuggets
RANK : 4
VARIANCE : 4
Fallen Star Factor : 6 (It's all about 'Melo.)
Start To Finish Stability : 9 (Unless a shooting guard falls in their lap, this team is pretty set for a while.)
Start To Start Stability : 8 (See above.)
Sun & Moon : NBA Finals Victory (Make no mistake about it, this team is capable of winning it all. I'm not saying they are going to win it all, but they could.)
Notes: It is not hard to imagine this team finding away to pull out the top spot in the West. It is also not hard to imagine this team finding themselves in a dog fight for the 8th seed in the playoffs. Their front line is amazing. 'Melo, KMart, Nene & Camby. They've got a much underrated point guard too. But, if you quizzed fans across the NBA on opening night, how many of them do you think could name the Nuggets starting shooting guard? And is there anybody on this team that can shoot outside of about 15 feet?
Minnesota Timberwolves
RANK : 3
VARIANCE : 3
Fallen Star Factor : Infinity (No KG? No way.)
Start To Finish Stability : 5 (Sam and Spree were last years big hauls and this years big trouble. The owner has not seemed willing to pony up to keep Sam and Spree and has been rumored to be eyeing Jason Kidd if he recovers from his injury. Wally is on the block too.)
Start To Start Stability : 2 (I just don't see these guys all being back next year. Sam, Spree, Wally, their so called centers. Big changes could be in store and they will have to be very creative to find a way to make the changes without sending KG the wrong message.)
Sun & Moon : NBA Finals Victory (I am a huge fan of KG. I will place no limits on his abilities on the basketball court.)
Notes: The experts are all picking these guys right behind the Spurs. Which makes sense based on last years performance, but... This year this team has lots of chemistry issues. Wally is not happy. Spree is demanding a trade. Sam skipped out on some of training camp and is not happy about his contract situation and rumors that he might be traded for Jason Kidd (again!). Who's their center? What is Eddie "Trigger Finger" Griffin doing on this team and more importantly where is his probation officer? If they keep it all together, this team should be great. But like the Kings, this team could go totally AWOL in a moments notice too. The difference between the two is that KG is liked and respected by just about everybody in on the team (save Wally) and the league in general. He commands respect that Webber could only dream of.
Dallas Mavericks
RANK : 2
VARIANCE : 3 (If this team finishes worse than the 5th best record in the west, I will be shocked.)
Fallen Star Factor : 4 (I don't even want to think about a season without Dirk, but this team would make the playoffs even if they lost him.)
Start To Finish Stability : 9 (You saw it here first. Cuban will not got nuts-o at the trade deadline this year. The only trade you might see would be if somebody has a brain hemorrhage and takes TAW off his hands.)
Start To Start Stability : 9 (Harris, Daniels, Howard, Dirk, Fin, Damp, DJ, and Booth are here to stay. Terry, Stack are almost certainly here for a while too. P-Pod will likely be around. TAW is unlikely to leave unless bought out. Dan Dickau is cheap and way down the depth chart. Shawn Bradley is not as cheap but almost as far down the depth chart. Henderson is on the last year of his deal.)
Sun & Moon : NBA Finals Victory (This team has the depth, talent and balance to win in the playoffs. The question is if they can get to the playoffs with the momentum, confidence and killer instinct in time. Dirk will need to be one of the top five players in the league.)
Notes: Call me a homer, but I love this team. The TWolves were thrown together last year and had the best record in the conference and came within a Sam Cassell back injury of the NBA finals. This Mavericks team can be at least that good. Of course, they might not get it all together in which case they will find themselves fighting for the 5th or 6th best record in the conference. But this team is way too talented and deep to fall any further than that. If I were a betting man, I would put money on the Mavs being within the top 3 records in the West.
SI Comments: Sports Illustrated breaks out their old bias and ranks Dallas at number six. Really? I know I'm being a homer by placing them at number two but six is just stupid. Of course, Steve Kerr put them at 9 or ten. Fools, all of you! The divisional format may push the Mavs down to the 4th or 5th seed in the playoffs but I fully expect them to have one of the top 3 records in the West. For every good reason you can give me to expect less of the Mavericks I can give you two good reasons why you should expect more from the Mavericks.
In the last four seasons the Mavs have won 52, 60, 57, and 53 games. Last season was a disappointment with 52 victories and tons of chemistry issues. This team will win between 55 and 60 games. The best team in the West last season won 58 games. So despite having a down season, they were only 6 games off the pace from the best team.
San Antonio Spurs
RANK : 1
VARIANCE : 3 (This team is solid. Anything less than the 3rd best record in the West would disappoint just about everybody.)
Fallen Star Factor : 9 (No Tim? Hello lottery. Of course, they would WIN the lottery if they were in it. It is just what they do.)
Start To Finish Stability : 9 (Solid team that thrives on chemistry. Unlikely to make any major moves.)
Start To Start Stability : 8 (They have locked up several of their role players. Tony Parker should cash in.)
Sun & Moon : NBA Finals Victory (The consensus pick from the West.)
Notes: Almost everybody agrees that this team is the best bet in the West. Brent Barry is a great addition for this team and addresses several of their flaws from last season. But, outside of Barry is there anybody on this team who can shoot?
Eastern Conference
Okay, I must confess. Even though an Eastern Conference team won the championship last season I really can't get very excited about this conference. So, they get a much more brief analysis.
Ranks 15-4 : These guys don't matter in the grand scheme of things. A few of these teams might be interesting in another year or two. But they will not be real players this season. The only exceptions are Cleveland with King James and Orlando with Francis and the rookie Howard. James because he's just flat out amazing and Orlando because I think Stevie has a chip on his shoulder and a pretty good team to make some noise.
Number 3 : Miami Heat
Notes: Shaq makes a huge impact on the East. But like the last couple of LA teams he anchored, there just isn't enough talent, especially in the front court to win it all. If Shaq ever had a bruiser power forward that wasn't 400 years old playing next to him he there would be no stopping him.
Number 2: Indiana Pacers
Notes: There's not a guy on this team I would want to build my team around and yet they are very good and they win a lot of games. Any team with Larry Bird at the helm scares me. I get the feeling Larry Bird is the Dick Chaney of the NBA. Not real personable, but you would rather him be on your side than against you. He'll find a way to make those guys win lots of games.
Number 1: Detroit Pistons
Notes: No surprise here. How they got Antonio McDyess after winning an NBA championship just blows my mind. I'm still not a real believer in their point guard and their offense is just awful. If this team keeps its ego in check they have the front court ability to beat everybody in the East. But I think the West champ takes them down this year.
Posted by on 11/01 at 11:15 PM