A new NBA season brings us a new NBA preview.
I’ve ranked the Western Conference teams from top to bottom based on how I think they will finish the regular season. Rankings due not reflect the predicted playoff seeding, as division winners will earn the top three playoff spots. I would rank the Eastern Conference, but I really don’t like any of those teams.
And so, here we go…
1: Spurs
Why:
The best team in the league gets not one, but two steals in the off-season. Finley & Van Exel make this team super scary. The addition of Oberto smells like another winner too (in the long run).
Concerns:
You hate to even mention it, but an injury to Duncan is about the only thing that should be able to derail this team. Even without him, this team makes the playoffs.
Look For:
Ginobili stepped it up to a new level in the playoffs last year. Will the team begin to take on his character instead of Duncan’s in the foreseeable future? Probably not this year but it could be fun to watch.
2: Mavericks
Why:
58 W’s last season. There is no good reason not to expect about 55 wins this season. Regardless, it is a toss-up to me between the Mavericks and Rockets for the #2 slot in the West. Despite returning most of the same players, this team is making an identity change that is being driven by Avery Johnson. If this team can come together, and their experience together should make that possible, this team could be very good.
The loss of Finley hurts, but I suspect Avery wanted him gone to make it easier for the coach to change the personality of the team from the inside. It was a risky move in which they dumped unquestioned talent for the possibility of improving the team’s defensive character. I give this team the edge over the Rockets because they have more players with lots of talent, even though the Rockets have the player with the most individual talent.
Concerns:
On the other hand, if Avery’s methods fall flat then this team could come apart in spectacular fashion. The loss of Finley’s leadership could be sorely missed if things ever get shaky.
Look For:
Most of the league pundits won’t acknowledge this, but the Mavs are suddenly very deep at center if not overly talented. I worry a bit about the point guard spot on this team. Terry is being urged to be more of a scorer and Doug Christie is being urged to be more like, dare we say it, a point forward. Don Nelson would be proud, but I fear this could all backfire.
3: Rockets
Why:
It would be hard to lose in the first round of the playoffs and make a better impression than the Rockets did last year. T-Mac was unreal. The addition of Swift and the return of a healthy Howard should make everybody in the West more than a little bit nervous.
Concerns:
Seemingly 15 “guards” on the team yet nobody makes you feel very warm and fuzzy as the regular point guard or shooting guard.
Look For:
This team should start much faster than last year. JVG and T-Mac spent the first part of last season sizing each other up. The end of the season and the playoff run created a buzz on the team and cemented the trust between the star and the coach. Also, Yao quietly put up better numbers last year than any previous season. He should continue to flourish as the Robin to T-Mac’s Batman.
4: Nuggets
Why:
Closed out last season like the team that many thought they would be when the season began. Monstrous front line and 3 point guards that can hold their own with any of their counterparts in the west not named Nash.
Concerns:
How this team failed to nab a quality shooting guard in the off-season should be the focus of a congressional investigation. Maybe Mike Brown was leading their scouting department this summer.
And, fans can not forget how injury plagued the front line players are for this team. The starting center and power forward break down more often than a Jag and the backup center didn’t fair much better last year.
Look For:
George Karl’s system seems to know no middle ground. When he clicks with a team, they win ball-games and go deep in the playoffs. See his years in Seattle and last season with the Nuggets for reference. When they don’t click, things get ugly. See his run with the “Dream Team” in international play and the ugly end to his years with the Bucks.
5: Kings
Why:
Savvy GM traded Webber’s big contract for a handful of useful big’ish men. Then he nabbed the top power forward on the market in the off-season.
The Kings don’t enter the arena with as much bark as previous years, but they still wield sharp teeth. And after a couple of lack luster years on the second line, their bench is looking better this year. The Kings are not a major threat to win it all, but they will cause considerable damage before the season is done.
Concerns:
Their top free agent has had a hard time nailing down the starting power forward spot. And don’t forget that in the last year long time Kings Doug Christie, Bobby Jackson and Chris Webber have all departed and left a whole in the teams identity. How long will it take this version of the team to find an identity and will it be a good one?
Look For:
Bonzi starts out well everywhere he goes and then runs out his welcome quickly. Rahim has put up stellar numbers everywhere he has been and yet hasn’t been on a winning team. At this point in his career, people have to start asking if it is just circumstance or if he is the problem.
6: Suns
Why:
Steve Nash and a high octane offense. The Suns will score points and win their share of games. If Amare makes it back in decent shape, this team should scare everybody in the Western Conference playoffs not based in San Antonio.
Concerns:
Three of their five starters from last year are either gone or out for most of the season. Nash won the MVP, but if there are going to be any more MVPs from this team in the coming years they will belong to Amare who is out with an ugly knee problem.
Look For:
James Jones will make everybody forget Q-Rich and his goofy hand gestures (and his poor shooting percentages).
Also, watch as the Suns quickly dismiss all of this silly talk about defense about 8 minutes into the season. The roster changes will dent but not severely damage their ability to score points. This team’s destiny this season hinges on what, if anything, Amare brings to the table late in the season. Nash and the offense will keep them close enough to the playoff contenders for two thirds of the season. If there is no sign of Amare by then, they will start to fade.
7: Lakers
Why:
Don’t get me wrong, I think Phil is one of the most over hyped coaches in the history of sport. But he is smart enough to stick with what works and that is the triangle offense. Even Rudy figured that out and re-instated the triangle before he jumped ship last season.
This team makes the playoffs or we get treated to some really fun fireworks as Kobe and Phil go wacko by late March. Of course, there is very little chance of them winning a playoff series, but they should at least make it into the playoffs.
Concerns:
The only positions of concern are Point Guard, Power Forward and Center. Out side of that, they’ve got it covered with all-stars. Oh, and their bench is Medvedenko and Luke Walton. That’s funny.
Look For:
“Phil and Kobe” talk on the air waves until it makes you puke. Meanwhile, Chris Mihm quietly defines himself as a legit center in the league by building off of last year’s success.
8: Timberwolves
Why:
Kevin Garnett.
Concerns:
Dirk has a better center backing him up than KG. Way better. Oh, and Wally is the only other good player on the team. That is a cause for smidgen of concern as well.
Look For:
I would hate to see KG not make the playoffs two years in a row, but I would love to know what happens if that occurs. Will KG finally lose his cool and demand a trade? He is extremely loyal but he is also extremely competitive. How does he balance out those two characteristics if the Wolves fall flat again this year?
Somehow, I think the Wolves will find a way to be relevant this year. I don’t know how, but I think they will.
9: Sonics
Ho-hum. I didn’t believe in them last year, even after the regular season. This past off-season makes them even less appealing.
10: Warriors
Trendy pick to make the playoffs. I have three words for you. “Baron Davis Injury.”
11: Clippers
I can’t wait until Sam Cassell wakes up and realizes that he is a Clipper. I know he knows what team he plays for, but does he really KNOW? That should generate some great quotes this season.
12: Jazz
They traded for Greg Ostertag? Huh?! What makes anybody think all of these guys belong on the same team. There is something wacky in Sloan’s kool-aid.
13: Trail Blazers
They got tired of being called the Jail Blazers so they exchanged their team for a bunch of kids who, if they act up, will at least go to juvy hall instead of prison.
14: Hornets
This team has been put together to give every rec-league player hope of someday making it into the NBA.