The regular season has wound down and six teams have clearly risen to the top. In the East, New Jersey (49-31)has returned to their division dominating ways (which is not quite as dominating as you might think since there are no other .500 teams in their division), Miami (52-28) has withstood Shaq's injuries and Walker's shot selection to soundly claim their division. And of course Detroit (64-17) has run away with the best record in the league.

In the West, Phoenix (53-28) has continued to look strong despite the loss of Amare and two other starters from last year's team to once again claim their division crown. Meanwhile, Dallas (60-21) and San Antonio (62-19) slugged it out all season until the Spurs gained the division title in the last week of the season.

Of those six teams, Detroit, San Antonio and Dallas set the standard for excellence in the NBA this season. Phoenix, Miami and New Jersey are all potential crashers of their conference finals but each appears sufficiently flawed to prevent any real threat to the NBA Championship this season.

Finally, before we get to my predictions I must confess that my predictions are highly influenced by the hilarious playoff preview from Bill Simmons of ESPN. I was wavering on a couple of these predictions until reading Bill's take and suddenly I felt a lot more comfortable about my picks. So, lets take a look at how this will all go down...

Western Conference Round One

Denver at LA Clippers

The general consensus seems to be that the Clippers are going to pull off the semi-upset in this round. It would be an upset because the lower seed would defeat the higher seed. But that is an anomaly because the reality is that the Clippers have a better overall record than Denver. While I would like the see the Clippers win this series for Sam Cassell's sake, I think the Nuggets may pull through. If they can stay healthy enough to keep their big guns on the court, they should win. The trade-deadline deal that brought them Patterson will pay off in the first round. Plus, I think it is time for Melo to join Wade and Lebron on the big stage.
Denver in Six

Memphis at Dallas

These two teams match up very well together. Memphis has the defensive edge and Dallas still has the offensive edge. But all signs point to this series ending in a near sweep even though most of the individual games will be very close.
Mavericks in Five

LA Lakers at Phoenix

The first 50 games of the season suggested this should be one sided for the Suns. But somehow the Lakers have pulled it together and Kobe is looking amazing as always. It will make my stomach churn to see this happen, but I think the Lakers may actually win this series. If the Suns do pull it off, it will be because Marion and Diaw step it up and the talking heads wont be able to stop yapping about how stupid Atlanta was to give up Diaw. But I think Atlanta will be spared that humiliation this year.
Lakers in Six

Sacramento at San Antonio

The league will find out early on if San Antonio can find their championship gear in this season's playoffs. For a team that set a record for regular season wins this year, they have looked fragile despite their added depth due to Finley, Horry, Van Excel, Barry and Oberto. I look forward to seeing if Oberto can get some playing time as I think he will be a legit role player in the next couple of seasons. This one will be closer than what you might expect.
Spurs in Seven

Western Conference Round Two

Now Things get interesting.

Denver at LA Lakers

To further prove the current playoff system is a joke... Denver will be in the unique situation of starting round 2 on the road against the number seven seed Lakers due to the Lakers better overall record. Yes, you read that right. The 45-37 Lakers will have home court against the 44-38 Nuggets. Stupid. The league also gets treated to the return of the Patterson-Kobe match up that has not been very competitive in the past (hint, the winner of this individual match up is named after a steak). When this series is done, either Melo will be an official star of the league or I will have to admit that Phil Jackzen is a pretty good coach. Either way, I'm stocking up on the Maalox in this round.
Denver in 7 (and David Stern gets a little reprieve from the jokes about the playoff seeding system)

Dallas at San Antonio

The league will be robbed of the Conference Finals we all deserve as these two teams can't avoid a second round match up. Thank you Mr. Stern for that foul-up. Tensions will be high as they tip this series off and San Antonio will likely slap down the Mavs in game one. Game two could very well decide the series. If the Mavs steal game two and return to Dallas with confidence, they should take the series from a weary Spurs team. This, of course, may all very well depend upon the health of Devin Harris and his ability to offset Tony Parker. My heart says the Mavs will finally slay the beast this season. It will take an MVP effort from Dirk and I think this year he atones for last season's dismal playoffs. And the nation learns how to pronounce Mbenga.
Dallas in Six

Western Conference Finals

Denver at Dallas

A Dallas-Phoenix match up would be a lot more interesting. But I don't think the cards are going to fall for the Suns this year. Denver theoretically should be able to give the Mavs a hard time with all of their talented big men. But reality sets in and the better coached, more talented team wins this series hands down. After the Mavs slay the Spurs, nobody is keeping them out of the finals.
Dallas in Five

Eastern Conference Round One

Washington at Cleveland

Lebron wins his first playoff series. Enjoy it while you can Lebron. You'll wish you had some lottery picks to help your team get better because you have no hope of getting past the second round for a while.
Cleveland in Six

Indiana at New Jersey

Pacers continue to crumble.
Nets in Five

Chicago at Miami

I feel bad for Chandler in this one. He will be lucky to get out of this series without being broken in two.
Miami in Four

Milwaukee at Detroit

Yawn.
Detroit in Four

Easter Conference Round Two

New Jersey at Miami

I agree with Simmons on this one for the most part. Vince Carter may get one or two great games out of this, but he can't make up for the difference between Shaq and Kristic. And I actually like Kristic for the most part, but Shaq is not done yet.
Miami in Seven

Cleveland at Detroit

Lebron's party comes crashing down and he gets to watch his buddies Wade and 'Melo advance to their respective conference finals.
Detroit in Five

Eastern Conference Finals

Miami at Detroit

Pat Riley should be fired for making this round a moot point with all of last off-season's goofy moves. Antoine Walker versus Prince or Sheed? HAHAHAHA! Now if they just had a guy like Eddie Jones. Oh, never mind.
Detroit in Five

Finally the big show.

The NBA Finals

Dallas at Detroit

The Big D versus De-troit Basketball. I expect the media to be split at about 60-40 in favor of the Pistons winning this series. If both teams are at full strength for this series I have a little doubt that Dallas will win. The Mavs are that good. Dirk is that good. Josh Howard is that good. The Dallas center rotation is good enough. The Dallas guards are good enough. The Dallas bench is superior too (although McDyess is the real deal on the bench).
Dallas in Six

Recap: Essentially, I think the league championship comes down to the second round match up of the Spurs and Mavs. If the Mavs win that series then they will not be stopped by anybody else. However, if the Spurs win the series I think Detroit extracts revenge upon them in the Finals. I think Detroit wins that series in five or six games. No other team from the East has a legit shot unless some significant injuries occur. And I really don't think the Suns have what it takes in the West. At least not this season. Next year? Lets check back on Amare's status in October.